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Replying to President al-Assad of Syria


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gcreptile

Posted Yesterday, 03:02 PM

For the first time, Assad was apparently forced to admit weakness as his army retreats:

 

http://www.aljazeera...7200627519.html


charon

Posted 30 April 2015 - 06:15 PM

So they're not, alawite ?

Dr. Zorders

Posted 30 April 2015 - 05:47 PM

So does this mean (the rest of) Syria falls next for ISIS?  :burnash:


the_engineer

Posted 30 April 2015 - 05:34 PM

Assad's army is collapsing he is running out of troops and the Alawite tribe are heading for steep decline if not extinction  .  1/3 of all young alawite men dead in the war and mothers are refusing to send more the only problem is the war is about to find them. Al nusra are driving into majority Alawite territory , ISIS will soon follow . Btw AL Nusra are considered moderate but are in the process of massacring 100 soldiers and their families (probably all alawite) they captured and attacking a alawite village killing another 200 . Read the financial times link and read the second to last paragraph to get feel for the rebels as they enter these majority Alawite area's. Huge massacres are coming to those places and they have nowhere to flee unless its into the sea. Just hope the Alawites take many ISIS and al nusra with them .

 

 

I think if Assad stays in Syria he will be dead by end of next year however I think he and his family will flee to russia ,possibly Iran . Including a few of Assad's close aides or family members might be a good pick for 2016.

 

http://www.ft.com/cm...144feab7de.html

 

http://www.upi.com/T.../9821430258733/

 

http://www.telegraph...r-al-Assad.html


the_engineer

Posted 07 April 2015 - 03:24 AM

 

(...)
I'm predicting it now a nuke or some type of Nuclear weapon will be used in Syria (by Israel or USA) on ISIS and they will blame it on Iran and vice versa Iran will blame USA or Israel . Both sides will be secretly happy it happened though.

That scenario is extremely unlikely since

1.) Neutral experts would have a way or determining the type of nuclear device used, and thus they would be able to tell whether it was likely an efficient, technologically advanced weapon from the US, or a rudimentary design from Iran (if they even had enough material to assemble such a weapon).
2.) Iran doesn't have any nuclear weapons yet, and even the most hawkish Israeli politicians only claim that they could obtain one in about a year or two if they are allowed to continue their nuclear programme.
3.) Civilian casualities in the millions. -> PR disaster
It's extremely unlikely that either the U.S. or Israel would use a nuclear device unless there is a direct existential threat. There are several other options that would be more acceptable for everyone (from ground troops to intensified airstrikes + arming the Peshmerga). This is a rare case where even the UN Security Council could agree on a solution, since the Russians and the Chinese would also want the IS wiped out just like the West and Iran.

 

 

I'm not talking about a massive nuclear bomb that could kill millions , but Israel wanted regime change in Iran and it ain't happening now in fact its further away than its ever been.  But some sort of nuclear device linked to iran being donated somewhere whether it came from Iran or not would be a game changer . Don't forget their was strong opposition in the UK to bombing syria and the MP's had to vote NO otherwise it would of exposed the UK govt as the undemocratic system it is.  All of a sudden ISIS came out of nowhere and the media went into overdrive about them then they all had another vote and voted in favour to start bombing. 

 

If ISIS does take Damascus it would be extremely strange if it didn't start trying to attack Israel , I don't think Israel would want to get into a ground war with them and ISIS on your border is certainly a direct existential threat. kill two birds with one stone neutralise ISIS and blame a nuclear attack on Iran maybe?  I know one thing for sure Israel won't just except the nuclear deal and it will look in other more nefarious methods to bring down Iran.

 

This war will go on for decades guarantee it and the question is how many muslims will die before they burn themselves out fighting ? I read only the other day muslims could be on par with Christians by 2050 but the fertility rates are dropping in middle eastern islamic countries and some are already under replacement levels.Lebanon ,maldives,uzbekistan,Bahrain,Brunei,Iran,Azerbaijan,Qatar and Tunisia.  Turkey, Libya ,Indonesia are just above replacement levels and in the the next 2 to 3 years expected to drop below.  The death rates are raising and the wars are spreading the projected numerical advantage and relatively young population of muslims is being eaten away everyday .


Posted 06 April 2015 - 06:35 PM

 

I'm predicting it now a nuke or some type of Nuclear weapon will be used in Syria (by Israel or USA) on ISIS and they will blame it on Iran and vice versa Iran will blame USA or Israel . Both sides will be secretly happy it happened though.

 

http://english.alara...-Syrian-TV.html

 

 

http://news.sky.com/...-nears-damascus

I hardly think Obama will nuke Syria when he's barely taken any military action there! Netanyahu might (he's capable of anything )  but how can he blame it on Iran when they've just signed a nuclear deal? I realy can't see that happening !


GossipGabe

Posted 06 April 2015 - 06:34 PM

(...)
I'm predicting it now a nuke or some type of Nuclear weapon will be used in Syria (by Israel or USA) on ISIS and they will blame it on Iran and vice versa Iran will blame USA or Israel . Both sides will be secretly happy it happened though.

That scenario is extremely unlikely since

1.) Neutral experts would have a way or determining the type of nuclear device used, and thus they would be able to tell whether it was likely an efficient, technologically advanced weapon from the US, or a rudimentary design from Iran (if they even had enough material to assemble such a weapon).
2.) Iran doesn't have any nuclear weapons yet, and even the most hawkish Israeli politicians only claim that they could obtain one in about a year or two if they are allowed to continue their nuclear programme.
3.) Civilian casualities in the millions. -> PR disaster
It's extremely unlikely that either the U.S. or Israel would use a nuclear device unless there is a direct existential threat. There are several other options that would be more acceptable for everyone (from ground troops to intensified airstrikes + arming the Peshmerga). This is a rare case where even the UN Security Council could agree on a solution, since the Russians and the Chinese would also want the IS wiped out just like the West and Iran.

Posted 06 April 2015 - 06:31 PM

I tried to register once but the system wouldn't let me for some reason. PS my names not Owen !


Dr. Zorders

Posted 06 April 2015 - 05:14 PM

 

Well ISIS have now entered Damascus and the meat grinder will go into full throttle .  Was the clearing of Zabadani  a path out for Assad and his family? I think they know they are fighting a losing war .  Assad won't die in Syria he will leave and go to Russia with his family possibly .  ISIS will fully concentrate the efforts on the capital now and no one will help stop them , the moderate rebels won't hezbollah are they willing to risk 10,000s of losses ? Assad's Army is quickly shrinking its a shame really because he was probably the most moderate out of all that are fighting and could of brought peace back to syria . He isn't a good man and his army haven't done good things but he is the best of a bad bunch.  This is going to become a wider issue very fast , if ISIS capture Damascus they can launch assaults on Lebanon and Israel and maybe Jordan . The Israeli army will definitely get involved if Damascus falls .

 

http://english.alara...-Syrian-TV.html

 

 

http://news.sky.com/...-nears-damascus

it's only o ne suburb mate.Damascus isn't about to fall tomorrow

 

Why don't you register, Owen? 

BTW engineer, where do you get your info from? Did you do fucking Middle East studies or what?  :wacko:


the_engineer

Posted 06 April 2015 - 05:04 PM

 

Well ISIS have now entered Damascus and the meat grinder will go into full throttle .  Was the clearing of Zabadani  a path out for Assad and his family? I think they know they are fighting a losing war .  Assad won't die in Syria he will leave and go to Russia with his family possibly .  ISIS will fully concentrate the efforts on the capital now and no one will help stop them , the moderate rebels won't hezbollah are they willing to risk 10,000s of losses ? Assad's Army is quickly shrinking its a shame really because he was probably the most moderate out of all that are fighting and could of brought peace back to syria . He isn't a good man and his army haven't done good things but he is the best of a bad bunch.  This is going to become a wider issue very fast , if ISIS capture Damascus they can launch assaults on Lebanon and Israel and maybe Jordan . The Israeli army will definitely get involved if Damascus falls .

 

http://english.alara...-Syrian-TV.html

 

 

http://news.sky.com/...-nears-damascus

it's only o ne suburb mate.Damascus isn't about to fall tomorrow

 

 

Well i hope your right . 


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